Aircraft and transport in Italy. Boeing: market perspectives and new challenges
The conference took place today in Milan at the Assolombarda headquarters
The conference "Air Transport in Italy - Market Perspectives and New Challenges", organized by Boeing and Sea (Milan's airports), took place today at the Assolombarda headquarters in Milan. During the conference, Randy Tinseth, Vice-President Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, presented the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) of the industry, the twenty-year forecast on the civil aviation market.
Boeing has raised its long-term forecast for commercial aircraft as the increase in passenger traffic and the imminent withdrawal of obsolete airplanes brings a demand for 42,730 new ones -valued at $ 6.3 trillion- over the next 20 years. The global aircraft fleet will also support the growth in demand for commercial aviation services, leading to a total market opportunity of $ 15 trillion.
The company's annual forecast, renamed Commercial Market Outlook to include detailed analysis of the dynamic aeronautical services market, was presented during the "Farnborough International Airshow". Recognized as a reference for global air transport forecasts, the 2018 CMO predicts that the total number of units is up 4.1% from the previous forecast.
According to data on the fleet today there are over 900 aircraft older than 25 years. By mid-2020, more than 500 planes a year will reach the age of 25 -doubling the current figure- fuelling the retirement wave. Tinseth said the data explain why 44% of new aircraft will only be needed to offset the replacement, while the rest will support future growth.
The global fleet, including aircraft that will be maintained, will practically duplicate to 48,540 units by 2037.
The single-aisle segment will see the greatest growth in the forecast period, with a demand of 31,360 new aircraft, an increase of 6.1% compared to last year. This $ 3.5 trillion market is driven largely by the continued growth of low-cost carriers, solid demand in emerging markets and growing demand for replacement in markets such as China and Southeast Asia.
The widebody segment requires 8070 new ones worth around $ 2.5 trillion over the next twenty years. The widebody demand is driven in part by a large wave of replacements starting in the next decade and by the deployment of advanced aircraft companies such as the 787 Dreamliner and the 777X to expand their global networks.
In addition, Boeing anticipates the need for 980 new widebody freighters over the period considered, up to 60 more than last year. Furthermore, it is expected that operators will purchase 1670 converted freighters.
The impressive fleet generates a solid growing demand for aeronautical services, ranging from support to the supply chain (accessories and logistical parts), maintenance and engineering services, to aircraft modifications and operations. In the next twenty years, the industry expects a market of 8.8 trillion dollars for commercial aviation services with an annual growth of 4.2%.
The main categories in the provision of services include the 2.3 trillion market for Maintenance & Engineering, which meets the requirements for the maintenance or restoration of airworthiness of an aircraft and its systems, components and structures. Another important category is the 1.1 trillion market for Flight Operations, which covers the services associated with the cockpit, the services, the training of crews and management and air operations.
In terms of geographic division, the demand for aircraft and services is similarly oriented towards the growth of the main markets. Asia-Pacific, which includes China, will continue to dominate the scene, with 40% of total aircraft deliveries and 38% of total service value. North America and Europe are among the first three ones.
The CMO, known first as Boeing Current Market Outlook, is the most extensive and estimated forecast being the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aeronautical industry.
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