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Boeing projects demand for 8,700 new planes in Europe through 2040

20-year commercial aircraft market valued at €1.25 trillion/£1.1 trillion

Boeing forecast yesterday steady growth and greater sustainability for Europe’s commercial aviation fleet over the next 20 years, as the vast majority of the existing fleet is replaced with more fuel-efficient models. Enabled by low-cost carriers and a rapidly expanding leisure travel market, European carriers will need 8,705 new airplanes valued at €1.25 trillion/£1.1 trillion through 2040, according to the 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the industry’s long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services.

Global and regional air travel markets are recovering largely as Boeing projected last year. Demand for air travel within Europe is leading the recovery as health and travel restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel's return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.

Reducing aviation’s carbon footprint remains a top priority for Boeing and for carriers in the European market. For short-haul routes, European airlines are expected to further invest in new, higher-capacity single-aisle models that reduce fuel use and emissions. For long-haul fleets, airlines are projected to leverage new-generation widebodies, such as the 787 and 777X, that significantly improve efficiency. By 2040, 90% of Europe’s current fleet will be replaced with more fuel-efficient models, outpacing the global replacement share of 80%, according to the CMO.

The CMO also forecasts that Europe’s commercial aviation industry will require more than 405,000 new aviation personnel by 2040, including pilots, technicians and cabin crews.

The 2021 Europe CMO includes these projections through 2040:

  • Passenger traffic is projected to grow by 3.1% annually, with fleet growth of 2.7%.
  • Demand for 7,100 single-aisle airplanes will be driven by continued growth in the low-cost carrier (LCC) segment that now accounts for more than 50% of intra-Europe capacity.
  • Demand for 1,545 new widebodies, including passenger and freighter models, will serve long-haul networks including point-to-point as well as hub-and-spoke routes.
  • The global freighter fleet is expected to grow by 70% in the 20-year forecast period, including demand for 85 new freighters in Europe.
  • Commercial aviation services market opportunities valued at nearly €1.6 trillion/£1.4 trillion. 
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AVIONEWS - World Aeronautical Press Agency
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