Analysts of US aircraft manufacturer Boeing and European aircraft manufacturer Airbus predict that the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic will no longer be the focus of concern. That place is now occupied by the risk of overproduction. This could negatively affect the accounts of the two. The strategies diverge: while the Americans focus on fast deliveries, the rivals on quantity.

On the eve of the "Dubai Air Show", the aviation show that ends today in the United Arab Emirates, Airbus unveiled its latest projections: the European manufacturer expects the commercial aircraft market to require 39,020 new aircraft between 2021 and 2040. However, many airlines are still scared of the pandemic and think Covid-19 may still have a powerful impact on business travel. On the contrary, Airbus believes that aircraft deliveries will return to pre-pandemic levels within two years, thanks largely to increased orders in the cargo sector. Boeing has also cut its delivery forecast for 20 years, but its estimates remain positive: 43,610 aircraft.

Both industries are trusting on the replacement of older and more polluting aircraft. This should offset the lower fleet growth due to the pandemic. The demand for replacement already constitutes more than 40% of their deliveries, according to estimates. The battle has just begun.